BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander is not exactly cheering that a steroid-charged Kiwi dollar might cause factories to close.
But he's not weeping either.
"We don't view factory closures today like we did 25 years ago," he said.
Then, workers were laid off and joined the dole queue.
"Now, the biggest problem Reserve Bank battles is capacity shortages, which underpin inflationary pressures and high interest rates," said Alexander.
So, if a Kiwi dollar trading at a 22-year high of 74USc-plus causes marginal manufacturing exporters to shut up shop, all that will happen is a reallocation of labour to more profitable companies.
"And so a high currency will burn off less efficient enterprises and improve overall profitability and productivity," he said.
Amid the squeals last week from manufacturers and others about the flow-on effects of the high Kiwi dollar, Alexander confessed to being a Darwinian on such matters.
"Not that I rejoice at the difficulties the high dollar will cause to some people, but I do see factors operating now that insulate them from worst of what happened previously," he said.
Take manufacturing exporters, for example.
The last time the Kiwi dollar hit US74c in April 2005, the Kiwi-Aussie cross rate was a shade under A93c. It went on to near-parity of A96c by the end of that year.
But last week the Kiwi was worth A88c - 5c lower - and he cannot see that changing much soon.
So things are not so bad this time for 45% of our manufacturing exports, which go to Australia.
Another plus for manufacturers is that economic growth in countries to which they export is good, and likely to remain so. There will still be a strong demand for their products.
The same is true for the tourism industry. The high Kiwi dollar will not encourage many Kiwis to travel overseas. But strong overseas economies mean there are still plenty of people wanting to visit our shores.
Then there's the farmers.
Alexander said the high dollar will mean farmers will be cautious to spend, remembering previous woes at such times.
But they were now receiving commodity prices 35% higher than the average for the past 10 years, and there was no indication prices were likely to slump soon. A higher payout to dairy farmers was on the cards for next year.
"If you knew nothing else about the New Zealand economy except where commodity prices are right now, you'd say 73.5USc for the Kiwi dollar was about right," said Alexander.
A strong dollar is typically indicative of a strong economy. And while Alexander concedes part of the strength of the Kiwi dollar is a reflection of a weak US dollar, that dictum still holds, he said.
And not much will change soon. High interest rates will go higher "as the Reserve Bank, after three years, still plays catchup on monetary policy", he said.
Which means no "relief" on the currency front, if that indeed is the right word to use.
